Sunday, October 24, 2010

Quik Cast for next week

A series of gales is developing all tracking fast just north of Hawaii then build as they move east and out of the swell window. Limited sideband windswell possible. But of more interest is a gale that tracked just barely off Kamchatka on Tues (10/29) with 40 kt west winds and 26 ft seas, with much 25 kt westerly follow-on fetch pushing over the dateline with seas in the 18 ft range Thurs-Sat (10/23). 11 sec windswell to be the result. This is all the direct result of a shift to the Active Phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, and is expected to continue for the next 2-3 weeks. Long term another moderate gale is forecast tracking over the dateline Sun-Tues (10/26) with 26 ft seas initially west of the dateline, then fading while pushing well north of the Islands. More modest sized northwest swell is possible late week.

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