It's just a question

Is there going to be wind tomorrow? Today was fantastic! Sorry, I didn't know. I looked at four different forecasts and still don't know. I got a call from my boss at 10:30 am saying there was wind: I was in the middle of my soap operas and looked at the OGG wind: V-3 mph N. I ran outside, and saw the caps from the chateau. Shit. The Maui Kitebeach Report isn't perfect. That's impossible! How am I supposed to be reliable source? Luckily, I am at the beach everyday, so if you trust me...I will let you know what the wind will be tomorrow....windy

Quik Cast for next week

A series of gales is developing all tracking fast just north of Hawaii then build as they move east and out of the swell window. Limited sideband windswell possible. But of more interest is a gale that tracked just barely off Kamchatka on Tues (10/29) with 40 kt west winds and 26 ft seas, with much 25 kt westerly follow-on fetch pushing over the dateline with seas in the 18 ft range Thurs-Sat (10/23). 11 sec windswell to be the result. This is all the direct result of a shift to the Active Phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, and is expected to continue for the next 2-3 weeks. Long term another moderate gale is forecast tracking over the dateline Sun-Tues (10/26) with 26 ft seas initially west of the dateline, then fading while pushing well north of the Islands. More modest sized northwest swell is possible late week.

quick Report

Similar weather will continue through the end of the work week as a healthy trade wind regime persists across the Hawaiian Islands. High pressure to the north will usher in moderate trades along with light windward shower activity, mainly in the morning. A North Pacific storm system will weaken the area of high pressure beginning Friday with lighter trades expected over the weekend. Stronger trades look to then rebuild early next week again..

Forecast

Strong surface high to the north of the state to do a little dance over the coming days, wobbling around, changing positions, but never-the-less remaining pretty much the same. Thus, it looks like your basic summer-time trade wind pattern persisting through the upcoming week. Models suggest the trade wind speeds may drop a notch from their current level, although they're still likely to be very healthy. A weak upper trough indicated in the models replacing ridging aloft over the islands tomorrow into Tuesday, suggesting some increasing instability (or at least a deeper trade wind layer), which should result in increased windward and mauka showers...assuming the moisture is available for them. Nothing out of the ordinary though, as far as showers are concerned.

quick Report

An area of weak low pressure formed east of Japan a few days ago and has been slowly edging toward the east-northeast. Another low pushing off from Kamchatka is expected to help fuel this system into a decent out-of-season gale just east of the international dateline and south of the central Aleutian Islands over the next few days. If the model predictions are correct, this system will occlude and could send a fun-sized north-northwest swell toward Hawai`i, arriving around Saturday and lasting for several days. We shouldn’t expect too much, but it should be safe to say that we would see a round of much needed overhead surf. Keep those fingers crossed.

Quicky

Alright, kite fans the old computer crashed. So, I am just slipping by with what I got. I am also trying to get a proper video widget for the sidebar, so I can get a good report to you. Just wait, it's coming.

Report: Super stellar today, flat water fun 25 solid without a nip of gust. A small to low-end moderate northwest swell is also expected to reach Hawai`i's winter shores. This one also isn't expected to provide much surf until tomorrow. It is much more likely that we'll have to wait until late Monday to see any of this action, and the swell will peak well under advisory levels. It should stick around through the middle of the week, however, and of course we will take whatever we can get this late in the season.

Eric Rienstra: Ratsy Alumni

Where's the wind?


Eric Rienstra, former Ratsy house alumni in Waiheu goes rogue. I love to see one of the old kite beach boys in training for the SSS. Flying a blimp, bouncing around on a trampoline, rolling down a sand hill, hardcore intense training. I really like the grainy out of focus shots from a Go-pro. I will find Eric's email so we know where to send the donations for the skateboarding ticket. Happy 420 Eric!

Report: So, some guy in Hood River said it was going to be 17 today. Hey bro, it wasn't 17 today...try 35+. Tomorrow, looking like it's going to be in the mid to high 20's in the morning. My mango tree is shaking so look for some strong wind.

Front End, Back End

Run and Slide

This El Nino year so far has been one the most incredible surf years ever. Jaws Broke over 7 times and it rarely dropped below 10 foot for a couple of a days. But, the wind has been shaky at best. Late November till late January were just bad, too many days of just no wind. What nobody has told you is that there was an incredible streak of 31 days of wind and surf, from late October to the end of November. It was incredible. Now, as winter starts to go into spring, the back end of the El Nino is happening. The wind has been cranking, and the forecast looks great. Good wind direction, solid surf seems to be the latest trend. What does this mean? Focus on the present, for it is a present.

Forecast: Trades continue to rock from the NE. The swell is also going to continue to bop. Keep your small kites handy.

Heavy Rain

Mid-winter in Maui, you come to expect the rain. Last night and this morning the rain came down...hard. If you were expecting clearing wind from the North, it was not going to happen. There was way too much moisture in the air; therefore no heating effect. Tomorrow, if the humidity doesn't go away, don't count on wind. I am still working on the "Mid-day Instant Report" suggestions are always welcome. My plan is to a quick shot interview of various kiters coming out of the water. Karen was actually talking about a double back roll attempt.

Report: Sunday..a light wind maybe...Our next swell in line is expected to arrive Sunday morning and will peak just short of warning levels. Take a couple days off..then towards the end of the week the return of trades....maybe.

Loco Moco

The first live broadcast came and went. So what did I learn: 45 seconds goes quick, be a little more organized, and have fun. I hid in the bushes during the filming. I know I will get better, so no worries there. We will see how tomorrows report goes. As always if you have any comments and suggestions, please let me know.

Report: We are going have nice wind for two days. So, get ready for a taste of Loco Moco. The swell is not going to back down, and outside was large (8-14+). I will have the report around 9:30 to 9:45am (HST). So, see you at the beach. Good Luck!

A weather conspiracy

Guy Hagi

Weather?
The Chinese? The Americans? The Russians? Who is controlling the weather these days? Well, I have my own theory...it's the weatherman. Yes, the weatherman. How could this be, you ask? Think about the computers that these people have at their power. High powered supercomputers making huge computations. The notion that weathermen have absolutely exact forecasts of the weather for months in advance would also be of interest to insurance companies, flip-flop manufacturers, the hat industry, the suntan lotion industry, bikini manufacturers, travel agencies, and kiteboard instructors. Just imagine what it would be to know with absolute certainty what the weather is going to be like in, say, two months time. Why, millions could be made if one were in the right business. And perhaps millions have been made. Who knows? Think about the economic power, all the industries making money on the precept of a future heat wave. So, next time you watch the evening news, look deeper, for the weatherman is already computing your future...Good Luck

Report: A strengthening high pressure throughout the week. Get it, why the gettins good, a front is skirting the island on Friday.

Peanut butter spoon

Sticky Wind

This week was like a peanut butter spoon. It's that spoon that you get the rest of the peanut butter out of the bottom of the jar, and the wind has been like that. A little sticky, still tasty, and but sucks if you leave in the sink. Today, the wind was sticky, if you got a good line and a good puff, you were on the way. Light winds are fun and easy, but they are a lot of work. As for the forecast, I am 2 for 2. So here goes for another 3 day this time.

Report: The high presure still sits above us, so the light trade pattern will continue. The storm track has shifted just high enough to keep the winds going all next week. Sunday: 15-20 E, look for the afternoon to be better, Monday, 18-22 ENE. Tuesday: 18-25 ENE. Surf will ramp up on Sunday, and the swell pattern will continue all week. Look for solid surf every where.

A Report

Everyone at the beach today kept asking what is the wind going to be like? So, I went over the charts and here is my conclusion: Friday, NE wind 18 to 22, Saturday E 15-20. My only suggestion, is always the same, bring all your kites. Basically, there is a little high pressure ridge to our north. It sticks around for about a week. So, the winds are trade, light, then south, then get strong at the beginning of next week. The swell is lined up, one after another. I'll keep you posted. This is definately looks better. Good Luck

Trade Winds

Yes...they are coming back! A day or two at most. Then maybe back again. Think of it like a car that has been sitting in the front yard for a while. There usually is a little trouble starting. Then it dies, then starts, then dies, then it goes. The car needs a little patience. These trades are tough, and they have been off for a long time. So, I have a feeling we are going to get some love.
Report:Thursday 15+ NE, Friday 10-15, Sat-Sun take a nap, Monday- this is where things are starting to take a U-turn. Surf 10+ all weekend, then on Monday another large NW 25+ My only suggestion is to bring all kites everyday and your surfboard. Good Luck!

Thermal

Today, big kites rule. 10, 11, 12 were the size of choice. If you had any of these kites , you were in for steady wind and and a nice sized swell running well overhead out the back. The Maui mini forecast is much of the same, a small thermal with heating convection causing some afternoon winds from the NE.

Prediction: 10+ Kite size

Wind Forcasting Basics

OK, so you want to know what the wind is going to do today, tomorrow or even next week. Let's be real, the live report is the best. But, there is a certain procedure that I follow that is really easy. Luckily, all the information is right on the web so you don't have to go far to find it. Here is the websites that I use for forecasting: Windguru, Ikitesurf, Stormsurf, Maui Weather Today and Guy Hagi on TV. Now, I look at the forecast tables for the week. This is done by a computer pretty reliable, but not perfect. These tables will give you a general idea of the longevity that the wind is going to blow,ie.how many days or weeks in a row. Then, I check the direction of the wind. Now, during trade wind times E,ENE, I add 6 on the low end and double the high end to the wind speed. If the models say 14, I think it's going to 20 to 28. These winds are usually more gusty. Strange, but true. Now, for NE I just add 6 with a smaller variance: 14= 18 to 22. For North winds, I take it a straight face value 14=14. Now, to see into the future I go to Stormsurf. I check on Hawaii map icon on the homepage. On the top right toolbar is the SLP (Sea Level Pressure) I click on this and watch. I am looking for a strong high pressure(H) area North and East of the Islands. This high pressure is like a pin- wheel throwing wind in our direction. This is where our wind comes from. During the winter months, keep an eye on North and West. These lows(L) can take away our wind. These storms need fuel, so the wind get's sucked into the low(L), making it Kona.